The NHL trade deadline is a chance for contending teams to add a difference-maker?for the playoff push. Among others, New York Rangers defenseman (and captain) Ryan McDonagh, plus teammates Rick Nash and?Michael Grabner, will be highly sought after before the?deadline arrives Monday, and they should?reward the acquiring team with above-average play ¡ª even?if they come at an above-average cost of young players and draft picks.
But then there are deals that come at a steep cost and yield little return. In other words, the kind of trade that teams should avoid at all costs. If?NHL general managers?want to steer clear of such?poor choices, they¡¯d do well to take a pass on the?following three players, all of whom have appeared in trade rumors.
Mike Green, D, Detroit Red Wings
At 32, Green is no longer the offensive force he once was, and his ability to tilt the ice isn¡¯t as notable as it used to be. This season, at even strength, the Red Wings blue-liner is producing his lowest rate of goals since 2013-14 (0.3 per 60 minutes) and a career low in primary assists (0.1 per 60). The share of scoring chances Detroit sees with Green on the ice (46 percent) is also a career low for him, eclipsing his previous low set last season (48 percent).
Green does have some value on the power play, but his 2.2 primary points (goals and first assists) per 60 minutes rank him 41st out of 60 defensemen playing at least 100 minutes with the man advantage.
Patrick Maroon, LW, Edmonton Oilers
The 29-year-old forward, set to become a free agent at season¡¯s end, posted a career-high 42 points last season and is on pace to post a similar total. However, who knows how well?the?6-foot-3, 227-pounder will do when skating without?Connor McDavid, arguably the best player in the NHL?
Wouldn't be surprised if half a dozen teams make strong pitches for Patrick Maroon who's proven he can play with top players¨CMcDavid here, Getzlaf in Anaheim.
¡ª Jim Matheson (@NHLbyMatty) February 15, 2018
When?Maroon?is not sharing the ice with McDavid during five-on-five play, the Oilers produce fewer shot attempts (72 vs. 64) and scoring chances (38 vs. 30) per 60 minutes than they do when the two are together, illustrating that any team looking to add Maroon will likely need to put him with a very talented top-six center to get the most out of their new asset. And, according to?TSN¡¯s Pierre LeBrun, landing Maroon will cost?either a first-round pick or a top prospect ready to crack the NHL.
|2017-18 Oilers (per 60 minutes at five-on-five)||Shot attempts for||Shot attempts against||Shot attempt %||Scoring chances for||Scoring chances against||Scoring chance %|
|Patrick Maroon |
with Connor McDavid
|Patrick Maroon |
without Connor McDavid
Jack Johnson, D, Columbus Blue Jackets
Johnson skates 19 minutes 34 seconds per game and is regarded as a two-way defenseman. Unfortunately, the numbers don¡¯t back that up.
After adjusting for score effects (teams with a lead tend to play with a more defensive posture than those trailing) and special teams, the Blue Jackets take 48 percent of the shot attempts, earn 47 percent of the scoring chances and have 46 percent of the high-danger scoring chances with?Johnson on the ice. That ranks 59th, 56th and 60th among the 73 defensemen who are skating at least as much as Johnson this season. He does start 37 percent of the time in the defensive zone (fifth-most), but the quality of competition he faces, according to Corsica¡¯s shot quality metrics, puts him 59th among blue-liners with similar minutes played.
In his 11-season NHL career, Jack Johnson has been:
a) a negative 5v5 Corsi player 11 years
b) a negative 5v5 shots player 11 years, and
c) a negative 5v5 goals player 10 years
He does play tougher minutes, but this is not a player who significantly moves the needle.
¡ª Jonathan Willis (@JonathanWillis) January 13, 2018
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